El Niño conditions expected in 2026–2027 pose a significant risk to global seafood supply chains, with direct implications for importers in Europe.
The strongest impacts will arise from disruptions in the Pacific, especially Peru and Ecuador, where warmer waters and reduced upwelling threaten anchoveta, the target of the world’s largest single-species fishery. Any biomass decline or fishing quota reduction would tighten global supplies of fishmeal and fish oil, raising feed costs for aquaculture sectors that dominate UK/EU imports, particularly salmon, shrimp, seabass, and bream. Historically, strong El Niño events have driven fish meal and fish oil price spikes of 20–40%, and similar volatility is plausible again.
Tuna supply chains will also be affected. El Niño typically shifts skipjack and yellowfin eastward across the Pacific, reducing catches in the Western Pacific while increasing them temporarily in the central/eastern zones. This redistribution complicates sourcing for major canning hubs such as Thailand and Ecuador, creating uncertainty around availability, certification continuity and pricing for European processors and retailers.
Warm water shrimp production in Ecuador and Southeast Asia faces elevated disease pressure and environmental stress during El Niño years. This can lead to inconsistent supply, higher mortality and increased reliance on veterinary treatments.
Closer to home, European bivalve sectors (mussels, oysters, clams) are vulnerable to marine heatwaves and harmful algal blooms, which can trigger harvest closures and increase the frequency of biotoxin-related alerts. These events may cause short-notice supply interruptions and heightened regulatory scrutiny.
Overall, UK/EU importers should expect higher prices, greater volatility and more frequent origin shifts across key species. Proactive planning will be essential to maintain continuity and manage cost pressures through the 2026–2027 cycle.
Further reading:
What a Possible 2026/27 Super El Niño Means for Commodity Markets (Expana, 21 May 2026)